Polymarket US, the regulated U.S. arm of the prediction market platform, is preparing to let traders wager on whether specific people will be arrested, according to filings submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
To trigger a payout, the person named in the contract must be "taken into physical custody," according to the filing reviewed by The Coinformer.
- That could include being booked, detained under an arrest warrant, held for arraignment or extradition, or transported to a police station or detention facility.
- Once that happens, later developments won't matter. The charges could be dropped, the person could be acquitted or pardoned, and the contract would still settle as an arrest.
The platform could also connect a contract to a specific investigation or incident.
Its filing cites the January 2021 Capitol riot, the attack by supporters of Donald Trump on the U.S. Congress, as one possible example.
- Prosecutors, law-enforcement officers, judges, court employees, grand jurors, lawyers and detention workers could be barred from trading when they possess advance information about an arrest.
- The restrictions would also cover the person named in the market, members of their staff and legal team, and immediate family or household members of anyone with privileged access.
The platform said it would rely primarily on official government announcements, arrest records, indictments and court filings.
- It could also use reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg, the Associated Press, and outlets including The New York Times, CNN and Fox News.
Its settlement decision would be final under the contract rules. If the underlying information became unreliable or unclear, Polymarket US could open a review process and, in certain circumstances, replace its sources or revise associated contract terms after trading had already begun.
The arrest product was one of six event-contract templates Polymarket US self-certified on July 21. The others covered disease case counts, pandemic declarations and three types of fantasy-sports results.