U.S. Google search interest in "prediction market" fell by more than 50% between March and July, while trading activity on the two largest platforms proved considerably more resilient, a review by The Coinformer found.
- The exact search term reached 100, its highest score in the past five years, in March before falling to 49 in July, according to Google Trends data.
- The unfinished August data point currently stands near 15 but was excluded because partial periods can change substantially before Google finalizes them.
Prediction market search interest halved from its March peak
U.S. Google search interest for "prediction market," scored from 0 to 100
Google Trends scores represent relative search interest, rather than the number of searches. A score of 100 marks the term's highest popularity relative to all U.S. Google searches during the selected period.
But trading moved differently
Kalshi's monthly volume climbed from $13.1 billion in March to $41.1 billion in July, an increase of about 210%, according to data from DeFi Rate.
Its weekly volume subsequently eased to roughly $8.6 billion by Aug. 16, down nearly 20% from its World Cup high but still nearly double the $4.4 billion recorded immediately before the tournament.
- Polymarket recorded more than $8.5 billion in July, 30% below its March total of $12.2 billion.
- Weekly volume has since fallen 58% from its World Cup peak to $1.7 billion, leaving it about 17% below its pre-tournament level.
Their individual trends nevertheless show that falling Google interest did not produce an equivalent collapse in trading activity.