Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says prediction markets can turn people away from social media feeds and toward politics, inflation and even AI doom.
Mansour argued in a Washington Post interview that spending time on prediction markets is better than "brain-rotting on Instagram."
Tarek Mansour
As Mansour says, non-sports prediction markets now make up about one-third of Kalshi's trades and are growing faster than sports contracts.
When asked why people have been slower to embrace news-driven event contracts than sports betting, Mansour said sports are easier because they are scheduled and familiar.
News markets, by contrast, need more events, better structure and more user education, he said.
His argument is that once users start trading on politics or other events, they may begin reading about topics they otherwise would ignore.
- As an example, Mansour pointed to Kalshi's market on the "Citrini scenario," a thesis about a possible AI-driven economic crisis.
- He said the market moved from 13% when it was first listed to about 25%.
- That market, he said, is partly a way to price the chance of "absolute AI doomsday," including unemployment above 10% and a more than 30% drop in the S&P 500.
Mansour also pushed back on the idea that prediction markets are simply gambling. If gambling means any speculation on an outcome someone doesn't control, he argued, then most financial markets are gambling too.
The difference, in his view, is whether users are trading in an open market or betting against a house that sets the odds.