Bitcoin price clawed back above $61,000 over the weekend after briefly breaking below $60,000 on Friday, but Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft says the market may still need to look lower before calling a real bottom.
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at about $61,742, down 16.3% over the past seven days and 23% over the past month, with a market cap of about $1.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.
Chart showing Bitcoin's pricing support structure. Source: Glassnode
Schultze-Kraft said in a Friday thread on X, June 5, that Bitcoin is now testing deeper support levels after BTC price fell to about $62,000, nearly 50% below its all-time high and down 24% in a month.
Rafael Schultze-Kraft
- Schultze-Kraft's chart points to about $46,200 as the Bitcoin level where past bear markets have often started forming a bottom.
- It also shows higher and lower reference points around $54,000, $40,000 and $35,000, meaning his framework leaves room for either a higher bottom or a deeper washout.
How low will Bitcoin go
Per Schultze-Kraft's chart, the more likely bottom area would be roughly $46,000 to $54,000. A harsher selloff could push Bitcoin toward $35,000 to $40,000, but the Glassnode co-founder noted that BTC has spent less than 3% of this cycle trading in that lower zone.
Chart showing Bitcoin's cycle drawdowns. Source: Glassnode
The thread also pushed back against a straight copy-paste of older bear markets. Rafael noted that Bitcoin's cycle drawdowns have become "shallower," moving from about 85% in the first cycle to 77% in the previous cycle and roughly 50% in the current one.
- To regain bullish momentum, Rafael said Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $75,000 to $78,000 area, where the short-term-holder cost basis, true market mean and 200-day moving average are clustered.