News16 June, 20263 min read

AAVE price could soar 133% in Grayscale base case

AAVE price could rise to $175 within a year if stablecoins, tokenization and regulation help DeFi lending grow, Grayscale Research said.

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Grayscale says Aave's lending revenue, stablecoin growth and tokenization plans could put AAVE price on a path toward a 133% gain over the next year.

In a Tuesday report, June 16, Charlie Perkins and Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, said Aave's token appears to have value around current levels after a selloff, deposit flight and the exit of some key contributors.

"Despite recent headwinds, we think the protocol will earn ~$60 million in 2026; typical fintech multiples (~20x-25x) would imply a current fair value market cap of $1.2bn-$1.5bn, or a token price of ~$80-$100."

Grayscale

More context: Aave risk provider drafts proposal to give veto power after KelpDAO hack

The stronger case depends on growth from stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and clearer U.S. crypto rules. In Grayscale's base case, those drivers could lift AAVE fair value to $175 in one year.

The high-growth scenarios are much larger
If Aave earnings compound at 25% annually, Grayscale said the implied AAVE price would be $227. At 35% growth, the implied price would rise to $444.

The issue though is that Aave is still recovering from stress tied to the April Kelp DAO rsETH exploit. Grayscale said the incident wasn't a direct attack on Aave and user funds remained secure, but it caused downstream disruption, reduced activity, paused buybacks and left total value locked meaningfully lower.

The report also tied the AAVE price case to a broader shift in crypto investing. Grayscale said DeFi tokens with revenue, margins and transparent value accrual may increasingly be valued more like financial companies than narrative-driven crypto trades.

Aave DeFi